Photo of the Day: Bouncing Boulders of Bedlam

A 30-foot boulder dislodged from a cliff in Rockville, UT (just outside the gates to Zions National Park) and found its way onto someones property today. 

The boulder hit a large rock outcroping and broke into several large pieces before rolling into someone's chicken coop.  Big Rock 1 - Chicken Coop 0.  Mother Nature always wins.  She has a good offense.

Skin and Bones: Realtor Sales Update

I called the Northern Wasatch Association of Realtors to get the latest figures on membership. After running those figures against sales volume for the past year we can finally update our chart cheerfully titled The Weber County Starv-O-Meter.

Before I post the chart, here is a picture from an NWAOR Luncheon of the near future:

Hey guys!  Where are your Realtor lapel pins?

Perhaps I am being a bit too sarcastic.  Perhaps not. Either way, the habitability of the marketplace for Realtors has not improved much.  Last year, I talked about a coming mass exodus of Realtors out of the business.  That event has not manifested itself yet.   I guess we are a stubborn bunch.  Time will tell what happens.  For today, lets take a look at how adverse conditions really are:

 

As you can see, there are, on average, just under three sales per agent per year in Weber County right now.  These are very adverse conditions.  Here is our agent count chart:

 

It appears that the agent numbers have not dropped off as dramatically as you might expect.  Perhaps the trend will continue down for a few years until equilibrium is reached.  If so, expect more complaining by agents and shoe leather soup at the NWAOR Luncheons. Yummy!

Surprise! Downtown Streetcar Shocker

Today's Standard Examiner has some exciting news about newly-discovered possible source of federal funding for a proposed streetcar system in the Downtown section of Ogden. 

The route would take the trolley through the commercial section of Ogden:

The proposed route would begin at the Intermodal Hub at 23rd Street and Wall Avenue   . It would then run up 23rd Street to Lincoln Avenue, along 25th Street to Washington Boulevard and then back along 20th Street, said Godfrey.    It would take about 12 minutes to complete the entire route. The system would be served by vintage streetcars that would run on biodiesel fuel similar to those that are successfully being used in Savannah, Ga., Godfrey said.

I looked at a map and here is what I believe the proposed route looks like:

Lets keep our fingers crossed that we get the grant and this thing is built in the next four years.  Great news!

Multi-Unit Market Update

The numbers for January are in and clocking in at only six sales. The multi-unit market for Weber County continues its anemic performance.

Here is our chart showing the market share of the different kinds of financing tools used to accomplish the transactions:

So far, cash and seller financing are king.  Interestingly, cash and seller financing price points are at the opposite ends of the pricing spectrum.  Cash buyers tend to pay wholesale prices while seller financing buyers tend to pay full retail price.

FHA Clamps Down on Multi-Unit Loans

It appears that bad underwriting isn't just a problem for FHA and single family houses. The mortgage bankers association today relates a story about how HUD is changing its guidelines to tighten up on loans for multi-unit properties.

Here is what the article has to say about whats coming down the line:

The proposed changes include a debt service coverage increase for FHA's 221 (d)(4) product from 1.11 to 1.20, increased escrows and reserves to four months principal, interest and mortgage insurance premium and disclosure requirements on lender premiums.

What does this mean to the market? Well, for multi-unit properties, remember that FHA is 20% of the marketplace right now. Making it more prohibitive to obtain these loans will just put further pressure on an already stressed market for multi-unit property. More owners will seek alternatives to sell which I believe will include seller financing.

HUD indicated that high vacancy rates were hurting loan performance and thus the reason for the change. It seems that too many people are moving into their parent's basements. This shows how unemployment drives demand destruction. Keep in mind also that the units that go vacant first are the lowest on the value curve: They are either way too expensive to afford or way too ghastly to inhabit.

Look for more seller financing opportunity ahead.

It's a Relationship Business...

I have had a couple experiences recently that have caused me to pause and reflect on the nature of the real estate business and the mechanisms that make it work.  The one thing that I keep coming back to in my mind is that this is a relationship business.  Regardless of the MLS, yard signes, IDX, flyers, websites, databases and guru CDs, the only way that anyone thrives in this business is by the relationships they have with their fellow men and the inherent quality of those relationships.

Which brings me ask:  How are our relationships?  What are they based on?  How do we nurture and sustain them?

For me, I found my relationships on trust and common interest.  My career has taught me to get a pretty good read on people and when I find folks who share a common interest and value system I tend to gravitate toward fostering a relationship with them.  I think we all do this in our own way.  The trick I think is sustaining and nurturing our relationships.  Do the tools we use today do that?  Does twitter help us deal with the needs of others?  Will facebook help you genuinely pickup somebody who is down?  Does our email communication solve or make a misunderstanding worse?

When I look back at these questions I would have to say that the majority of the time, the answer is no. Unfortunately, the tools we use today to get "to-do" items done do nothing to foster rich and sustainable relationships.  On the contrary, they can detract from them. Oswald Spangler in 1918 writes in Decline of the West regarding how communication indicates the lifestage that a particular society is in.  He states that a society is in decline when the value of the people's communication with one another is in its quantity, not in its quality.

The clients that I work with, and with whom I have the best relationships, are the ones that I talk to on the phone, or when possible, visit with in person.

If you find your relationships strained, a phone call or a visit is often the best remedy.   

Let us heed the immortal words of Conan O'Brian regarding this subject:

Jeremy's Closet: Clearance Sale!

We have been through quite a few rehab projects over the years and many times I found myself keeping things that I thought I would use later in another project.  For one reason or another, the opportunity to reuse a few of these items has not manifested itself so in the spirit of fun, I am offering them to you:

1920's ART DECO Corner Shelf

I pulled this out of a 1920's bathroom a few years ago.  We were going to refinish and put it in another art deco home.  All our projects since have been Arts and Crafts or Victorian so this hasn't found a home.  Perhaps you can find a use for it.  It goes well in 1920s-1930s homes.  $25

1920s ART DECO Towel Rod

This is another vintage art deco piece.  It appears to be a chrome finish. Again, it will go well in a 1920's bungalow or 1930's Tudor revival home.  Typically those types are homes with these style finishes. $15

Old Style Curtain Rod Brackets

Have the rods but missing the brackets?  I know the sticker says 19 cents but my price is $2.50...unless your money is vintage 1950 mint uncirculated then I will take 19 cents face value.

Vintage Style Faucet

 
This new old-stock item would go great on any old sink.  And unlike all the plumbing being made in China today...this one was made in the U.S.A.   $2.50

1908 Arts and Crafts Cast Iron Sink

This is an original sink from my home.  It comes with separate hot and cold faucets.  It needs a little porcelain touch up on the right side were there was a drip.  Spice up your historic home with a historic sink.  The sink was originally a stand-alone piece in our hallway upstairs.  Innovative at the time the home was built, but awkward today.  I guess you would call it a one-quarter bathroom?  Anyway, I have the original iron mounting bracket and screws (sitting in the sink).  Total package $30.

That concludes today's surprises from my closet.  If I find some more I will post them for your consideration.  If you are interested an any of these items, let me know.  Best Regards!

The Big Squeeze: 1.1 Million More People

The Wastach Front Regional Council has a new report out called THE WASATCH CHOICE FOR 2040: The Greater Wasatch Area’s Map to the Future.  Its an interesting perspective of the the population growth anticipated in Northern Utah.

Here is a quote from the report:

Over the next 30 years, the Wasatch Front urban area of Weber, Davis and Salt Lake Counties will add 1.1 million new residents, a 70% increase. Morgan and Tooele counties will see even higher growth rates.

Lets say that the average household is 4 people.  This 1.1M translates into 275,000 households that will need housing in the next 30 years.  Builders will need to construct approximately 9,200 housing units a year, either via apartments or homes just to put a roof over everyone's head.  If you think we are doomed to price deflation in housing in Utah forever, you had better think twice about that idea. 

I am in the process of finding building permit data to find out where construction is now relative to that 9,200 figure.  My hunch is that we are much lower than that and so we are experiencing pent up demand.

Finally, here is a map provided by the WFRC on suggested use of space. 

If you read the entire WFRC report, you will see that the Trolley District Neighborhood Plan that was recorded in the books of Ogden City this past year is very much in line with the goals and suggestions of the report.  Compliments to city staff, Council and Mayor for thinking ahead and bringing Ogden's planning and development in line with demands of a burgeoning population.

FOR SALE: 1924 Upgraded Bungalow - MUST SEE

For those of you looking for a quality bungalow with great finishes:



Ask price: $104,900

Call me to take a look in person. 801-390-1480

Kudos!

Short Sales Abound

I was doing some market research this evening and I though I would share some findings with you.

Queue chart please...

This shows what percentage of listings in cities in Weber County are short sales.  Since short sales are typically for homes that are behind on mortgages, it gives us a rough barometer of the distress going on in any one market.  I have ranked the cities according to the percentage of short sale listings.  Also, I went back and determined how many short sales have closed in the last year in each city.

Hooper seems to be leading the pack with almost 1 out of 5 listings being distressed.  North Ogden, South Ogden and Farr West seem to be fairing the best right now.

Interesting data.