Short Sale Closing Ratios

I talked about the benefits of buying short sales in past posts. However, its important to understand that the advantages of purchasing such property come with a case load of inconveniences.

One such inconvenience is closing the sale. Because the seller's mortgage company has to agree to forgive the seller of a portion of their existing mortgage balance, the process is uncertain until that forgiveness is obtained. There are a myriad of variables that also contribute to transaction failure. I won't go into detail here though.

Since I am still sick, I did some more research this morning to answer this question: Where in Weber County do short sales have the highest probability of closing?

Here are our findings:


On average over time, only 33% of all initiated short sales actually close. However, an average is made up of highs and lows. I wanted to find out if there was a geographic link to highs and lows and if so, where were they. The chart above is very revealing in this regard. The cities left in white (except Ogden) are too low in total closings to give us meaningful information. Huntsville's amazing 100% close ratio is invalidated by only having 1 closing. The same goes for Riverdale's 0%. Ogden sits right at the average which is very consistent with our 33% Rule. Ogden has a broad variety of neighborhoods across all economic levels.

The green cities are the ones that caught my eye because of their exceptionally high closing ratios. Pleasant View is a high end area and apparently buyers are pouncing on the opportunity to buy bargains there while lenders are willing to take a significant loss. Roy is not as much of a surprise since its been the busiest market in Weber County for some time.

What is interesting on the low end is North Ogden. North Ogden is a stones throw from Pleasant View, yet no one can seem to close a short sale there. I would equate North Ogden with South Ogden in average price. Yet, for some reason, short sales are not being done successfully there.

This is very interesting information to absorb. Hopefully it will help you establish your expectations when working with short sales.