A Dead Cat Bounce?

Interesting charts today from Weber County:

 

And Davis County:

Several months ago I trumpeted the end of the downward slide in sales in Weber and Davis Counties.  Now, looking at January's data, I am a bit concerned for what 2010 may have in store for us.  It appears that sales Y-o-Y were down for January.  We experienced a run up in October/November/December as folks took advantage of tax credits only to belly flop in sales in January.  March and April this year should have a boost due to the a final push to take advantage of tax credits.  However, after that, who knows how sales will go.

With FHA expected to increase down payment requirements, higher rates, and the expiration of the tax credit in April, the rest of 2010 should be very interesting to watch.  Perhaps we will enter a final leg down in sales volume as more buyers save up down payment money.

One thing that is interesting to note is that our sales volume is well below the natural growth curve when correlated to population.  In other words, we have pent up demand for housing but it is unable to release due to a damaged mortgage market.  When the banking sector regains its footing, expect to see an explosion in buyers as nature takes sales volume back to the levels it would be at otherwise.