POP! Weber County Sales Up 22% Year Over Year

In running the numbers for March I found myself quite surprised.  Sales in Weber County for March in 2009 were 205.  This year we recorded 250.  That is a 21.9% increase over the year! 

Before you pop open your Martinelli's bottle and toast to better days, let's take a look at how the Fed's First Time Home-Buyer Tax Credit is affecting things:

The tax credit was originally due to expire in December 2009.  You can see that in October and November the market had 27% and 57% (Whoa!) YoY increases. Both are likely due to this program.  In the first expiration, you had to close your deal before December 31st.  However, in November, they announced the extension of the deadline thus sucking the motivation out of the market place and sales fell to levels below the previous year.

This effect can be likened to a sugar high.  We are now on our second dose of sugar with the expiration for the tax credit looming.  The more meaningful deadline is the end of this month.  You must be "under contract" to purchase a home by that time.  However, in our chart, these contracts won't show up as sales until they close.  It takes four to six weeks to close a transaction so contracts written now will close in May.  We are seeing a pop in March's sale, how will April and May pan out.  More importantly, what will sales be like when the sugar high is over.  Sales for June, July and August should be revealing as we adjust to normal blood-sugar levels.