Ogden Valley: The Canary In the Coalmine?

Yesterday I was doing some work on the Ogden Valley market and created some historical charts.  What I found was quite interesting (click to enlarge):

This first chart shows sales volume since 1996.  It is very easy to see where the bubble is in this chart.  Notice however, that sales volume peaked in late 2005.  This is much earlier than the sales peak for the rest of Weber County in late 2006.  In this case, the Ogden Valley market served as a leading indicator for the housing bust in the rest of Weber County.

Notice also that recent sales volume has returned to pre-bubble levels.  Although much less than the peak sales, the volume should be sustainable moving forward in my opinion.   

This chart shows how long houses that have sold have sat on the market before closing.  During the 2001-2003 recession we saw market times increase significantly.  The interesting exception is the affect the 2002 Olympics had on housing.  Snowbasin was a major venue for the Winter Olympics.  After peaking at nearly 400 days in 2009, our days on market is beginning to work its way down.  This is encouraging as well.

Finally, we have our valuation chart which gives us a barometer of the value of homes that are selling.  We can clearly see the price bubble in this chart and the following decline.  The selling price of homes has come back into a price range that is more affordable.  However, many of these sales are REO or short sale properties.  Given the dramatic difference between peak values and today's clearing prices, we will likely continue to see REO and short sale properties dominate the sales scene for some time.  It will take a while for sales prices to return to their peak bubble heights. 

The bottom line is that the market is stabilizing in Ogden valley.  I believe we are trending toward a predictable sales and price pattern that will become more consistent as we move forward in time.  Ogden Valley may also serve as a leading indicator for middle income housing in the rest of the county.  If business owners are confident enough to purchase second homes or large personal residences in Ogden Valley, that is a good indicator that economic conditions for their employees will improve and thus improve the housing market they populate in the rest of Weber County.