Sales Anemia: Market Update in Charts

I was updating some of my market charts this morning and thought I would share some findings:

The first chart here shows sales volume and the 12 month moving trend since the inception of the MLS.  It appears that we are at a new post-bubble low on the trend line with sales volume trending at the same level as in 1998.  Can you hear the crickets?

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Just to show you how government interference distorts the marketplace, I have updated our year-over-year monthly sales volume chart showing the differences in sales over the same month the previous year.  The tax credit spiked sales volume which was followed by a dramatic collapse in volume for the rest of the year.  We have had mildly improved numbers this summer which in turn has translated into us springing back above zero in the last couple of months.  I expect this graph to smooth out over time as we move past the volatility created by the tax credit.

The next chart shows membership of the Northern Wasatch Association of Realtors.

As you can see, despite sales volume tracking to 1998 levels, board membership, while slowly declining, still remains hearty. 

This translates into our Weber County "Starv-O-Meter" which shows the number of transactions being sold per year per agent on average.  Think of this chart as a "pain" index reflecting the ease or suffering the Realtor community experiences as a whole.  Clearly, now is the toughest time in MLS history to be in the business.  If we had stats going back to the early 1980's I bet we would find the meter in a similar place.  Interestingly, I am also told that Board membership in 1983 was just 200 agents.

For those Realtors who are surviving this hostile market environment, I salute you!

Posted by Jeremy Peterson
Ogden, Utah Real Estate Broker
Mountain Real Estate Companies
801-390-1480