I attended the 2012 WFRC Consortium on urban planning, transportation, and housing trends that are facing Utah. Today's demographic trends will mean that policymakers and market participants will need to adapt to significant changes that are happening. To set the stage for this, here are charts from the first presentation we heard from U of U economist Pam S. Perlich:
Consortium WFRC 2012 Data Slides
The meeting was informative but provided few answers to some of the compelling questions that this data poses. Utah's housing market is built largely around the suburban model which is crafted around the automobile and large lots to accommodate large families. This historically has been due to a cultural phenomena related to the predominant faith in the State. Soon though, that will also be due in part to the cultural dispositions of immigrant families.
So, with that in mind, can urban options be created that meet these needs? Will market participants adapt to provide for this change? Suburban consumers change their minds on urban living and move into the city? Will developers innovate and pioneer new product to meet this need? Or, will city living simply change the size of families being formed? How will low wage earning immigrants fit into this mix when urban real estate typically costs more than suburban space? This is the riddle that has to be solved.
Utah's population is getting older and more diverse. By 2040 Utah's white population will be the minority. We need to prepare for a seismic shift in how we have been planning and developing our communities.
I enjoy living in the urban center of Ogden. Our family enjoys the amenities and walkability of our community. For the future's sake, let us hope that more people find merit in these qualities as well.
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