DIVIDED HOUSE PRICES: Ogden's Trolley District and East Bench Neighborhoods Converge

Ogden's core historic neighborhoods have historically been divided by a great imaginary barrier.  Starting 60 years ago, Harrison Blvd. was seen as a partition that separated Ogden's upper middle class community from the supposed unseemly riff-raff that lurked on the opposite side.  As Ogden's neighborhoods matured over the decades, this perception became self-reinforcing and self-fulfilling.  Ultimately, by the time our family moved into Ogden in 2004, it was common knowledge among anyone living in Weber County that this boundary existed.

To illustrate how this impacts the real estate markets, lets take a look at a history of house prices in these two distinct neighborhoods. Here is a snapshot of the Trolley District which is bounded by 20th St. on the north, 30th St. on the south,  Harrison Blvd on the east, and Washington Blvd. on the west.

As you can see, homes are selling on average today at a super affordable $56/SQFT.  Prices have recovered nicely from the market trough experienced a couple of years ago.  There is a broad noisy range of data though due to the condition of the properties.  Nevertheless, our trendline gives us some idea of the direction of prices.  Now lets take a look at the East Bench as defined as homes east of Harrison Blvd, south of 20th St. and north of 36th St.

As you can see here, prices have also recovered nicely from the recession bottoms but they still are quite a ways below their pre-recession peak.  Today's East Bench homes are selling around $78/SQFT with a lot less variance in the recent figures.



On average, today's homes east of Harrison Blvd. are valued 39% more than homes west of Harrison Blvd..  This confirms the market stigma and its impact.  Yet, the most remarkable trend we find is when we study the difference in figures between the sales of the Ogden Trolley District and the East Bench over time.  Surprisingly, it would seem there are forces at work eroding the great divide that has bifurcated Ogden for so long.

As you can see, over the past seven years, the difference in average sales prices between the two neighborhoods has been declining.  Although the data is noisy, there is definitely a clear trend.  If the trend holds, in the next 15 years, the East Bench and the Trolley District will be at parity in value.  If this happens, it will be a day that many Ogdenites thought they would never live to see:  A day when it is perceived to be as respectable to live west of Harrison Blvd as it is to live east of Harrison Blvd.  I am optimistic we will see it sooner than we think.

Two forces, I believe, are at play which are pushing price trends in these two neighborhoods.  First, price increases in the East Bench are slowing due to the aging of the homes and their occupants.  Many homes on the East Bench are owner occupied and have not been updated in decades.  When the owners sell or their estates are liquidated, this means that the sale prices are hampered due to the condition of the property.  The inherent value in the neighborhoods prevents investors from swooping in to rehabilitate the homes for a profit.  Thus, the market is dependent on owner occupants and this keeps the market prices stable but limited from vaulting to new heights. Since many owner occupants lack the skill sets or capital to improve their homes in a significant manner, this means it may take a little longer for improvements to occur in some of East Bench homes.  It is a function of the where the neighborhood is in its life cycle.   Meanwhile, the Trolley District saw home prices collapse in the past and the condition of homes was so bad that a significant portion have been completely renovated from top to bottom.  These homes are being put in "like new" condition by investors which makes the homes more attractive to home buyers and thus helps their relative price points.

So, while the East Bench is definitely valued more, it is appreciating more slowly than the Trolley District, which has accelerated in its price increase.  Let's keep our eyes forward to see how the next decade reshapes the landscape of Ogden's neighborhoods. Ogden's two great central neighborhoods are headed toward a more vibrant and unified future.