Saturday, July 9, 2011

Suburban Development Doomed - Where To Now?

I was on Youtube and found this video from 2008:



It's been three years. Do you think things have gotten any better since then?  Here is the chart on new construction nationally (courtesy of CalculatedRisk):


Well, I will euphemistically say that new construction sales are "under performing".  Locally, Utah has better demographics and there is new construction occurring due to population growth. But, local builders have not altogether avoided the trend you see in the above chart.  If you ask them how things are going they take a deep breath and say "ok".  The deep breath says more than their words.

The market right now is rewarding the resale and reuse of existing homes over the creation of new ones.  Here is another chart that shows that dynamic:
 

The money in real estate right now is in rehabbing existing homes.  The new construction supply hangover we experienced in 2008 is mostly mopped up but new construction is anemic and will be for the foreseeable future.  Investors can capitalize on this market dynamic by fixing existing homes and reselling them for a profit.  The speculative game of betting on new construction won't be back for a decade.    

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