I reviewed sales data from Weber County for the past several months. There is some good news.
Queue chart please:
This chart records home sales since the inception of the online MLS system for Weber County back in 1995. From 1995 to 2003 sales volume grows slowly but steadily, likely mimicking population growth. Then, in 2003, sales start to climb significantly. That surge in sales never stops until 2007... just as the mortgage meltdown starts. Then we see a precipitous and painful correction. The downward trend is choppy as government intervention gooses sales in 2009 only to have the market recoil further in 2010.
But alas, there is hope. Just looking at the patterns, it appears that 2011 was the first "normal" seasonal cycle we have experienced since prior to the market collapse.
Our trendline is also showing signs of improvement. After 2010's dismal performance, we appear to have bottomed out and are now climbing out from a sales volume trough.
Another thing to consider is what the long term trend should be based on population growth. If we draw a line following the average growth that occurred ending in 2002, we should be selling just under 300 homes a month on average. Right now we are floating around 200. If we have truly troughed, then look for sales growth to trend toward the 300 mark over the next couple of years.
Brighter days may be upon us.
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