On Saturday, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints announced changes to its missionary program that will have a significant impact on the timeline of social milestones for individuals of the faith.
For as long as I have been alive, young men have been encouraged to serve missions at the age of 19 and young women, if they choose to serve, at the age of 21. The mission experience is a right of passage for most who serve and marks a bright line in time between youth and maturity.
So, the question arises: Will this change in time frames affect Utah's Housing market?
First, to understand how it might impact it, we need to know that the housing market is affected by demand for housing. Demand for housing is a direct result of people seeking shelter for themselves which initially happens as a result of them leaving their parent's home. While young adults just starting out will tend to rent, newly married couples tend to gravitate toward home ownership.
Since LDS returned missionaries will be coming home at a younger age, will this portend earlier marriage and household formation than has been experienced up until now? Would these younger married couples complete their studies earlier and purchase their first home sooner than in previous years? Will these policy changes affect the number of households being formed as well as the shift in time?
My gut says that this policy change will be felt in the markets slowly enough almost not to be noticed but that it will be have a meaningful contribution as a whole over time.
Obviously it is too early to tell, but it would make a curious study to see how this church policy change will affect sociological dynamics which ultimately affect the housing economy in the long term. Perhaps this would be a good thesis paper for a desperate grad student somewhere scouring the earth for a fresh idea. If you are that grad student...you're welcome.
No comments:
Post a Comment