Tuesday, January 6, 2015

CHARTS: Real Estate Market Movements in 2014

As we start 2015, I thought it would be appropriate to review what happened to the market in 2014 and do some prognostications for the coming year.

Here is our perennial chart showing sales volume since 1995.  The white trend line shows us a 12 month moving average to help filter out the seasonal volatility.  As you can see here, we appear to have reached a relative plateau in 2014 relative to previous years.  After the market troughed in 2011, volume significantly increased until late 2013.  Since that time, the number of homes sold has only increased moderately.  Although sales aren't increasing, this level of sales volume is indicative of a healthy marketplace.

The year-over-year monthly comparisons show us the moderate pace of sales growth (with the odd exception of September).  Charts from 2012 and 2013 showed consistent double digit increases in sales.

This next chart shows how long it takes to sell a home priced at fair market value.  You can see the winter high of 120 days in January of 2012.  Although there is definitely a seasonal aspect to the time on market, the trend toward shorter market times has been very strong.  Very low interest rates and low prices combined to spark competetive buying in early 2013.  Hence, the very short market times.  We have now moderated to the mid 50's which is again a healthy place for the market to be.

For 2015, I expect more of the same.  Prices should slowly increase with inflation (look for another post on prices soon) and sales volume should plug along as usual.  Of course, any major political or economic events may change this prediction, but I don't foresee anything on the horizon that will affect the market significantly in this calendar year.

Conditions are good for buyers and sellers in this Goldilocks marketplace.  If you are looking for a home or want to sell yours, CONTACT ME, and lets make sure your needs are met.  

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