Great news today reported by the Standard Examiner. A report out by the Wasatch Front Regional Council shows population estimates for various cities in Weber County through 2040. Without further delay, here is the breakdown:
Quite interesting statistics. There are several important things to take away from this table:
1. House prices cannot stay flat if the population doubles and no new houses are constructed. The housing funk we find ourselves in as a nation will ebb locally. There are two sources of new people: A. We are breeding. B. Folks immigrate to us from other states whose economies are flagging and whose tax rates become oppressive due to mismanaged state finances. The bottom line: New houses must be built or house prices must increase geometrically. Look for housing price increases first and then new construction to kick in. Keep in mind, this is a 30 year outlook. House prices could be flat for another 5-7 years which means that it's better to buy and hold now rather than in 25 years when everything is expensive.
2. Right now, with house prices flat and construction anemic, land prices are at rock bottom. Where will all the new houses for all this new population be built? Look at those cities with growth rates over 100%. They have the most available land. Land banking for a generation could be a profitable enterprise. Land prices will not stay at rock bottom in communities that are quadrupling in size.
3. Notice South Ogden, Washington Terrace, Roy, and Riverdale. They are mostly built out and so will not have much new construction over the next several decades. However, their homes are still new enough not to tear down. That means that these communities will age and atrophy much like Ogden did from 1950 to 2002. Look for these communities to increase their rental base and decline over the next generation. Roy is already headed in this direction...especially east of 2700 West.
4.Notice that Ogden's percentage is still low. Due to the life cycle of Ogden's housing, much of it will either be restored, or torn down for new construction. Also, some of the spaces will be converted in use from single family housing to high density condos and other more urban friendly uses. "Mixed Use" is an up and coming zone element in the city. Since most of Ogden has been built out for decades, most of the population growth that you see there will likely come from renewal and revitalization. If the numbers used to derive these population figures only include new construction as their base, than I imagine that Ogden's population will increase more than this projection due to the revitalization the city is now undergoing.
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